Leaders from 12 of the nation's largest unions, along with rival federations AFL-CIO and Change to Win, have held three meetings since January aimed at setting aside differences and taking advantage of the most favorable political climate for unions in 15 years.

"We've had very positive discussions and we've reached some significant agreements," said David Bonior, the former Michigan congressman who is brokering the discussions.

But Bonior stressed that significant hurdles remain as leaders work out how a unified labor federation would be structured and what its goals would be.

Seven unions, led by the Service Employees International Union, bolted from the AFL-CIO in 2005. They complained the federation focused too much on political campaigns and not enough on recruiting new members. The break reflected frustration with steadily declining union membership, from a peak of 35 percent of the work force in the 1950s to about 12 percent today.

But now the political landscape has changed with Democrats taking the White House and control of Congress. Union officials see a window of opportunity to accomplish key goals, including passage of legislation that would make it easier for workers to organize unions.

"There's obvious benefits in terms of efficiency, message delivery, financial savings and a host of other reasons," Bonior said. "You can always be more effective if you're talking in one house as opposed to three."

Talks have included the 3.2 million-member National Education Association, the nation's largest union, which was not previously aligned with either federation but could become part of the new structure.

None of the leaders involved has publicly talked about specifics, but the pace of negotiations has picked up. The issue is prominent on the agenda during the AFL-CIO's annual winter meeting in Miami next week.

"We are still talking," Change to Win chairwoman Anna Burger told reporters recently.

Still, there are major issues to resolve, including who would lead the new federation, how organizing should be done and even what coalition would be called.

Some breakaway unions swore they would never return to the AFL-CIO, so there's talk of changing the name identified with organized labor for more than 50 years.

Leadership is tricky, too, with AFL-CIO president John Sweeney set to step down this year. The federation's secretary-treasurer, Richard Trumka, is a likely successor. But some unions, particularly the Teamsters, would oppose him.

Robert Reich, former labor secretary in the Clinton administration, said the labor split didn't really matter when Republicans ran Washington and unions didn't stand a chance at reforming labor laws.

But with Democrats in charge, unions realize that "strength lies in unity," said Reich. "A divided labor movement is inherently weaker than a united one, especially when it comes to national politics and policy."

Nowhere is unity more important for unions than in efforts to pass the Employee Free Choice Act in Congress this year. The measure would take away the right of employers to demand secret-ballot elections by workers before unions could be recognized. Instead, unions could gain representation if a majority of workers sign cards authorizing it.

Unions believe passage of the bill would spur a renaissance in the labor movement, perhaps doubling union membership with the ranks of workers now discouraged from organizing by employer intimidation. Business groups have railed against the bill for months, saying it would effectively deprive workers of secret ballot voting and subject employees to union bullying.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street ended another unforgiving month with a steep loss -- one that left the Dow Jones industrial average at less than half its record high.

The day's news unsettled investors. Citigroup Inc. agreed to turn over a big piece of itself to the government, a move that fanned worries that other banks would face crippling trouble with bad debt. General Electric Co. slashed its quarterly dividend by 68 percent. Both companies are part of the Dow Jones industrial average, which fell 119 points.

And the government's gross domestic product report showed that the economy fell at a 6.2 percent annual pace at the end of last year, a much faster than expected pace.

For investors, it all added up to a prolonged and increasingly painful recession.

"I don't think there is the confidence that the recovery is going to happen very quickly. It's going to take time," said Scott Fullman, director of derivatives investment strategy for WJB Capital Group in New York.

Some analysts said the market's slide could have been worse -- the major indexes finished well above their lows.

Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago, said Wall Street's ability to show some recovery Friday despite the onslaught of bad news is a good sign.

"We have become somewhat callous to these news announcements," he said.

Nonetheless, the market's stats once again showed how troubled Wall Street and the economy are:

-- The Dow, at its lowest close since May 1, 1997, is now down 50.1 percent from its record high of 14,164.53 reached in October 2007. It came within 34 points of 7,000, a level it hasn't fallen below since October 1997.

-- The Standard & Poor's 500 index breached its Nov. 21 trading low of 741.02, which came during the height of the credit crisis. Friday's finish was the lowest for the index since Dec. 18, 1996.

-- The Dow's 11.7 percent loss in February was its worst since 1933, when it fell 15.6 percent, and its sixth straight monthly drop. The half-year slide totals 38.8 percent, the worst since 1932, when it fell 45 percent.

The S&P 500 index fell 11 percent for the month. It was the second-worst February for the index, topped only by an 18.4 percent slide in 1933. It was the index's fifth monthly drop in six months; it managed a slender gain of 0.8 percent in December.

-- The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, which reflects nearly all stocks traded in America, lost 10.3 percent for the month, its worst slump since October. That's a paper loss of $1 trillion. Since its October 2007 peak, the Wilshire 5000 is down 52.7 percent, or $10.4 trillion.

The losses in the final session of the month came as Wall Street had been hoping that stabilizing Citigroup would help ease worries about the beaten-down bank stocks and remove some of their questions about the prospects for the industry.

But analysts said the loss to regular shareholders from the government's move touched off worries that other banks could see their shares hit as well.

Citigroup said before the opening bell that it agreed to a deal in which the U.S. government and private investors including the government of Singapore and Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal will convert their preferred stock in the struggling bank to common shares. The plan won't require additional money from the U.S. government, which holds an 8 percent stake in Citigroup and would own 36 percent.

"Citi has been a leading indicator the whole way down and the dilution that shareholders took today is sort of a leading indicator of what could happen to other banks, particularly the weak ones," said Kevin Shacknofsky, co-portfolio manager of the Alpine Dynamic Dividend Fund in Purchase, N.Y.

Some sort of deal with the government had been expected much of the week. But Citi fell 96 cents, or 39 percent, to $1.50 as investors worried about how much their holdings in the company would be diluted by the changes.

GE, meanwhile, said late in the session it would cut its dividend to save $9 billion a year. The conglomerate has a big financing arm, so it often trades like a bank stock. Its shares fell 59 cents, or 6.5 percent, to $8.51.

The Dow fell 119.15, or 1.7 percent, to 7,062.93. The S&P 500 index fell 17.74, or 2.4 percent, to 735.09, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 13.63, or 1 percent, to 1,377.84.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 3.93, or 1 percent, to 389.02.

Two stocks fell for every one that advanced on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to a heavy 8.44 billion shares, up from Thursday's 6.48 billion.

Wall Street was also shaken when the government's gross domestic product report showed that the economy fell at a 6.2 percent annual pace at the end of last year, a much faster than expected pace.

The Commerce Department figures on GDP, the worst since an annualized drop of 6.4 percent in the first three months of 1982, cast some doubt that the economy will begin to show signs of improvement by the end of this year, as many analysts have predicted. But the poor showing also could make it that much easier for readings in coming quarters to look by comparison, Cook said. Investors would welcome even a slowing pace of decline.

Health care stocks, normally an area of safety in weak economies, fell for a second straight day Friday after the White House released a budget proposal Thursday that calls for cutting some health care spending.

"This creates a lot of weakness in this market because if the safe-havens are not safe anymore it could convince a lot of people to say 'You know, I don't kneed to be in this market right now. I can just go to cash,'" Shacknofsky said.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.02 percent from 3 percent late Thursday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, was down at 0.25, compared with 0.26 percent from Thursday.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude fell 46 cents to settle at $44.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Britain's FTSE 100 tumbled 2.2 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 2.5 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.5 percent. Earlier, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.5 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week down 302.74, or 4.1 percent, at 7,062.93. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 34.96, or 4.5 percent, to 735.09. The Nasdaq composite index fell 63.39, or 4.4 percent, closing at 1,377.84.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, declined 21.94, or 5.3 percent, to 389.02.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended at 7,415.60, down 386.67, or 5 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,945.130.

(This version CORRECTS Corrects oil price; UPDATES bond quotes, UPDATES volume figure with consolidated volume; ADDS 3 grafs at end with index performance for the week. Moving on general news and financial services.)

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is down sharply lower as investors second-guess Citigroup Inc.'s plans to turn over a big piece of itself to the government.

Citi shares are down more than 30 percent as investors worry about their holdings in the company being diluted by the move.

Word that the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, fell at a 6.2 percent annual pace in fourth quarter is adding to investors' worries.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index has breached its Nov. 21 trading low of 741.02, which many investors had hoped would mark the bottom of the market's fall from October 2007.

The Dow Jones industrial average is down 117 at 7,065, while the S&P 500 index is down 16 at 737. The Nasdaq composite index is down 16 at 1,375.

評論當前金融大局，和黃前大班馬世民二十五日對本報記者說：「金融、地產、製造業……全部結了冰，惟有林木業，可替全球經濟解凍！」並笑言「種樹勝於靠（開）銀行！」他認為木材林是「綠色金礦，但不用掘，樹木不斷增長，生產的永遠比砍伐的多……」。馬世民持有林木業公司股票（馬世民於○七年向兩儀控股賣出他與友人持有的蘇里南森林 Greenheart，料大有斬獲；見○七年八月一日陳焱的〈丈八金剛〉），是既得利益者，看好是理所當然的；他的「綠色金礦」論也許過甚其詞，不過，這番見解倒令筆者記起一宗未了的「文債」。二○○六年二月二十八日，本欄〈畢格斯期油飲恨 俾斯麥購地心安〉，下題談的便是林木業，而這是畢格斯（Barton Biggs，長期掌管摩根士丹利研究及策略投資部）推崇德國「鐵血宰相」（一八六二年出任普魯士首相，在議會發表就職演說時指時局緊張，「不是議會辯論便能解決；要用血和鐵〔Blood and Iron，即槍炮和性命〕才能解決問題」，遂得此綽號）俾斯麥的購地植林投資法，當時筆者說「多年前讀過一本俾斯麥和其投資顧問往來的書，找出後當另作一文……」。直至馬世民提出木材業的投資價值，才猛省此事。

這本書，是美國的德國史及猶太史學者、哥倫比亞大學榮休史學教授史端的《鐵金關係》（F. Stein: Glod and Iron，仿「鐵血」譯法；此書專寫俾斯麥與其投資顧問、猶太銀行家貝萊施羅德〔Gerson von Bleichroder, 1822-1893〕的關係）。俾斯麥（Otto Van Bismarck, 1815-98; 1871-90 任德意志帝國首相）歷任普魯士和德國政府要職多年，是統一德國的大功臣。受官大財多的傳統思想影響，國人一定以為他加官晉爵後必然可以不事生產而財源廣進，事實不然，他把私人財產交由貝萊施羅德管理，投資金額「細眉細眼」，而且常為投資而傷腦筋，這從他和其投資顧問頻繁的書信往來可見；然而，在沒有證監條例亦不知內幕消息為非法的年代，俾斯麥的投資大有斬獲（在二十五年內平均實質年增長約百分之九），可是，他不相信紙幣，對「投資顧問」持懷疑眼光，因此不斷把利潤提出，購進木材林（Timberland，不斷伐木不斷種樹的樹林）；木材林的平均年收不足百分之五，但俾斯麥見識過通貨膨脹的厲害，永遠有市場需求而木材林面積有限，是他對之情有獨鍾的底因；俾斯麥還認為他的子孫未必會理財，而可靠的投資顧問不多見，因此，與其留下股票和債券，何如留給他們大片大片可以生財的土地，管理木材林根本不必有過人的理財手法，平平庸庸的人便優為之……。一代「天驕」，俾斯麥在歐洲政壇縱橫捭闔建立不世功業，同時竟要為子孫後代作投資部署，而他看中竟然是不起眼且不必費神管理的木材林！此中的「投資智慧」，對求財有萬丈雄心者是不易聽進耳裏的。

貝萊施羅德是十九世紀德國著名銀行家（其客戶包括大作曲家華格納），當年他本人擔當的角色是真正的「私人銀行家」，專替有財有勢者管理財產，俾斯麥的官俸及其他收入比如租金，俱存進在貝萊施羅德銀行的戶口，而其一切開支，由貝萊施羅德處理（英相邱吉爾亦如此，當他財盡但不自知而狂飲習性未改時，銀行家便委婉對他太太表示要他節制用度）。俾斯麥出身望族，惟不善理財，在四十歲前，經常為債務煩惱，他對德國大詩人海湼認為有錢才能獨立、舒適有私隱及自由的說法，深有同感；其對於管理財富的看法現在仍「有效」─冷靜是美德、浪費和疏忽是罪惡。這是他青年時期一度負債纍纍痛定思痛之言。

一八四五年乃父病故，留下二座巨宅，他把它們租出，有租金收入，開始通過以法蘭克福為基地的羅富齊（筆者過去譯羅思財）涉足股市。他投資的第一家公司是柏林啤酒（Tivoli）。俾斯麥通過當選議員走上從政之路；一八五九年出使俄羅斯，包括交際及交通費在內的年薪三萬五千（馬克．下同；普魯士用的貨幣單位是taler〔dollar由此字衍變而來〕，德國在俾斯麥手上統一後改名馬克）。是年，經羅富齊介紹，赴任前他委託貝萊施羅德代他管理財產，因為有互補性─俾斯麥需要專家指點及忠誠可靠的財產看管人，貝萊施羅德需要最新的政治消息─他們很快便「關係密切」。一八六二年俾斯麥被召回國，出任首相，年薪減半，只有一萬五千（外加「免費官邸」），對於講究飲食（對法國香檳、紅酒和魚子醬有奇嗜）和過寫意生活（一八六三年舉家赴庇亞列茲〔見二月十三日本欄〕度假二周，花掉一萬零五百五十馬克）的俾斯麥，官俸入不敷出……。一八六六年在普魯士首相任內出兵打敗丹麥奪回國土後，國會通過撥款四十萬作為對他「效忠國家」的酬勞（有如帝皇賞賜有功大臣；邱吉爾家族在牛津郊外的府邸便是國會感謝其祖父在滑鐵盧打敗拿破崙而為其興建），有了這筆約合今日五百萬的「橫財」，俾斯麥的投資開始多元化。俾斯麥買賣的股票和債務，除德國外，還遍及法、英、美、墨西哥和埃及，而它們多為酒廠、鐵路及物業按揭公司的股票和政府債券。在十九世紀末期，歐洲各國爾虞我詐，外交活動頻仍，貝萊施羅德在重大事故發生前，大都能比他的同行「早一點」獲知消息，他的客戶包括俾斯麥均有利可圖。由於當年通訊主要靠書信，因此留下大量紀錄，供史家查證。

俾斯麥之貪財，還在把為他祝壽、原意是要以他之名成立「愛國基金」（Patriotic Charity）的一百五十萬馬克據為己有─由他的朋友組成的籌款委員會以壓倒性的大多數票贊成他用賀款購回其較早前他周轉不靈時賣出的祖屋。至此俾斯麥擁其四處物業（都是包括數條村落的木材林）約共六萬英畝，成為當年德國最大的林木（uncut timber）主；但他處心積慮累積苦心經營的不動產，經歷二次世界大戰早已煙飛灰滅、化為烏有！

  疑似「終局開始」

2月26日，周四。港股在期指結算日反覆偏軟，高開逾60點後，不久即掉頭回落，午後受內地股市急跌拖累，一度挫313點，低見12691點，但收市前重磅股滙控（005）被大幅推高，協助大市收復部分失地。恒指收報12894點，跌110點或0.9%，成交微增至395億元。國指收報6995點，跌188點或2.6%。

滙控是昨天表現最佳藍籌，以全日高位收市，收報57.45元，升2.35元或4.3%，成交21.1億元，抵銷部分中移動（941）和國壽（2628）跌逾2%的影響。

2月期指收報12860點，跌80點，低水34點；3月期指收報12782點，跌58點，繼續大低水112點。

內地股急挫，市場憂慮政策收縮，借勢回吐，上證綜合指數收報2121點，跌85點或4%；滬深300指數收報2190點，跌114點或5%。

滙控（005）下周一公布2008年全年業績，沽空盤近日明顯收斂，淡友似有暫作壁上觀之意。大笨象派成績表之前，另一英資大行蘇格蘭皇家銀行（RBS）業績率先揭盅，全年淨蝕241億英鎊，寫下大不列顛企業虧損紀錄，但集團早已發出預警，市場並不意外，焦點反而落在英國政府為銀行有毒資產提供虧損擔保的計劃（Asset Protection Scheme，APS）。

在參與計劃後，銀行須先為問題資產接受約一成的「削髮」（haircut），餘下損失由政府承擔。銀行的另一「成本」，是要為此向政府繳交「保費」，每年平均為受保資產3％至4％，但不必以現金支付，諸如貸款票據或IOUs等證券均在可接受之列。除此之外，銀行須同意增加放貸並接受政府監督借款進度。RBS和萊斯兩家已獲政府大量注資的銀行，預料將保證向英國企業和置業人士合共增加400億英鎊借貸。

英「清毒」或較美快
在美國財長蓋特納兩周前發表花旗版拯救銀行大綱時，老畢曾根據甲、乙銀行對計劃的可能反應作出了一些假設。結論是，基於甲、乙均認定只要對方按政府的計劃把毒產剝離，另一方即使不參與，也會因長期困擾業界的不明朗因素消除（market conditions cleared）而受惠。按此分析，拒絕參與計劃的一方因為不必接受政府嚴苛的監管，甲之失（監管較多）可能成為乙之得。若甲、乙均這樣想，則雙方都不參與「清毒」計劃的可能性便很高。

這個假設用於大不列顛身上，情況又如何？

在美國的例子中，老畢為了方便討論，假設該國只有兩家銀行，實際情況當然複雜得多。華府透過可兌換優先股形式，以半股東半債權人身份持有數以百計銀行的權益，但英國政府已通過把手上優先股轉換成普通股，持有RBS七成股權（持股量可能因進一步注資而增至84%）；北岩（Northern Rock）更早就全面國有化。換言之，英國當局迫銀行在監管和貸款政策上就範，比美國容易得多。在「清毒」計劃上，美國的銀行也許敵不動我不動，但英國至少已有RBS落實參與計劃，萊斯亦準備追隨。

如果英國也只有兩家銀行──萊斯和RBS──則甲、乙已同時參與資產保護計劃，其他銀行由於亦受到政府不同程度的控制（滙控和巴克萊不在此列），「囚徒兩難」的假設在英國未必適用。有趣的反而是，單是RBS一家銀行，放進APS的不良資產已達3250億英鎊，佔資產保護計劃的整體規模（5000億英鎊）一個甚高的比例。RBS的對手陸續加入後，擔保計劃或有擴大必要。倘若放進APS的資產持續跌價，英國納稅人長遠要為銀行家以往的過失付出多大的代價？

淡友暫宜忍手
不過，從投資者的角度看，英國每次出手打救銀行，不論最終是否管用，總有先聲奪人之效。去年10月首相白高敦宣布政府直接入股金融機構之「創舉」，就為他博得陣陣掌聲，這次可能也不例外。G20下月在倫敦開會，英國首腦人物必趁機積極造勢，爭取全球以英國的計劃為藍本，謀求為信貸市場解凍。一種「終局的開始」（The beginning of the end）的氣氛似在金融業凝聚，雖則疑幻疑真，短期對包括滙控在內的銀行股應有支持，淡友為保安全，暫宜忍手。

中國銀監會公布，內地銀行及金融機構去年有5834億元（人民幣．下同）的淨利，比2007年增長三成，當局亦有信心內地銀行業績今年可以「跑贏大市」。相比起歐美等國銀行的情況，中國形勢大好，但銀監會主席劉明康在記招上不忘提出，要防止內地銀行不良信貸急增的趨勢。

此言一出，內地股市即時受壓，擔心中央未來將收緊信貸。與此同時，有消息指2月份新增貸款較1月減少一半以上，只有8000億元，有迹象顯示，當局有意出手調整降溫。

遠防通脹近防通縮？
去年上半年中國通脹一度接近雙位數字，當局立即緊縮信貸，嚴防通脹惡化；下半年因為金融海嘯，經濟形勢急轉直下，因此才放寬信貸，以支持基建發展及其他民生工程項目。由去年11月至今年1月，信貸連續三個月快速增長，而內地股市、樓市亦蠢蠢欲動。

中央雖不敢對通縮掉以輕心，但對通脹的防範始終不減，只不過，海嘯來得太快、太猛，所以不得不採取放寬措施。《21世紀經濟報道》在2月25日社評中指出，人民銀行目前採取「遠防通脹、近防通縮」的態度，這中間顯有矛盾，因為央行政策主要是長遠性的，並非着眼短期操控，既要「遠防通脹」，如何做到「近防通縮」？

最近看到一些索羅斯的消息，儘管量子基金2008年回報「只有」10%，比07年的32%大幅倒退，全球收入最高的對沖基金經理寶座被保爾森（John Paulson）取代，屈居次席，但在許多對沖基金蝕到「執笠」的情況下，索羅斯可以取得一成回報，殊不簡單，老索依然是一盞好夠Watt的「投資明燈」。

索羅斯最近加入（或加碼）的股份，主要是能源及農產，其中巴西石油公司Petroleo Brasileiro佔投資組合比重接近二成，加拿大肥料生產商Potash則佔近一成。索羅斯的新寵則是美國日用品零售連鎖店Best Buy、石油公司Hess、Conoco Phillips、煤礦公司Arch Coal，以及在美洲主要從事運煤的鐵路公司Union Pacific。

至於沃爾瑪就被大手減持，而黑草莓（BlackBerry）手機生產商RIM更遭「清倉」。箇中有何玄機，大家不妨上網看看索羅斯最近的專訪報道，應該可以從中得知他的「路數」。